A Model of CMBS Spreads

The market for securitized commercial mortgages is still fairly new, dating back only to the mid-1990s. As the market developed, and both rating agencies and investors became more comfortable with the product and the associated risks, the level of credit support behind given tranches steadily declined. At the same time on-the-run spreads also declined. This paper develops a series of models of both on-the-run CMBS spreads and spreads on newly-issued CMBS. Unlike the on-the run spreads, we can observed differences in credit quality and credit support for the newly-issued securities and therefore identify the the marginal cost investors assigned to these measures of credit quality and credit support. We then use the model to see if the marginal cost assigned to these measures of CMBS credit quality and credit support significantly changed after the 9/11 attacks increased the perceived risk associated with commercial real estate, the passage and extension of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act, and the turmoil in structured credit markets